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Ireland Economy – Oct 2011
Economic and Industry commentary from Talk Financial Ltd
Consumer confidence is on the floor while banks continue to show minimal liquidity.
Interest rates on Irish sovereign cut to average c. 3.5% but govt debt 2011 YTD is up at €21B indicating that ECB/IMF loan interest rates are the least of our problems.
Exports strong and FDI created new job opportunities this summer. Unemployment is a major issue with only emigration keeping the rate below 15%.
Global Economy – Oct 2011
Dollar downgraded and Greece on brink of collapse. Italy downgraded this week. Another recession? Govt’s cannot borrow or print their way out this time.
If Greece defaults, German & French banks will be hit. This may impact on their sovereign debt ratings.
Revised Euro bailout fund €440B; Italian debt €1.1T. Irish Govt deposit scheme exposure was €400B. Euro-banks may need up to €200B in further capital.
Yet another plaster to stop a haemorrhage.
Irish Property Market
It is amazing how some bodies continually understate the fall in property prices. Until prices, demand, supply, industrial wages and credit fall into line, prices will continue to fall. We believe prices will fall until at least 2013 in our view.
Expect to see a possible reversal of ECB rate increases by year-end.
Changing financial landscape?
Irish Life and New Ireland seek buyers as part of the bank model down-sizing. Rumours abound of other financial institutions looking to buy, or sell or reduce exposures. Aviva announces 500+ jobs cut. Caledonian Life beefs up its presence after being taken over by Royal London.
Our main concern in the shake-up is the fear of contraction.
Tax Deadline - Pensions still wise?
In a word … YES – Fifteen Brief Facts:
a.) Currently up to 41% income tax relief
b.) Any growth in the fund is tax-free pre-retirement
c.) Tax-free cash withdrawals at retirement
d.) Future tax credit cuts make investing now wise
e.) If risk-averse, there are several deposit options
f.) Pension Secure Deposit rates up to 4.25%pa
g.) Funds with exposure to growth & limited risk
h.) Solid third party security by non-Irish banks
i.) For aggressive investors, undervalued equities
j.) Commodity funds tracking oil, green energy, etc
k.) 100% of your capital is invested via this office
l.) Capital Secure Gold Fund up to 40% potential
m.) No changes to director pension funding limits
n.) A pension is still the best way to extract profits
o.) Without a retirement fund, how will you retire?
PAYE/Self-employed tax return deadline
Oct 31st (or Nov 15th online) is the deadline. Contact us for professional advice on how you might reduce your tax bill via pension funding.
Disclaimer:
The commentary outlined in this newsletter is for general consideration only. It does not constitute advice. Readers should get individual advice before taking any action. Talk Financial Ltd accepts no liability for the views expressed.